Jim’s Jungle
Some thoughts ahead of Michigan/Ohio State 2023…
It’s the most wonderful time of the year. By which I mean, of course, the eve of Michigan/Ohio State. The Game. This year is a weird one, to say the least.
Like last year, the stakes could not be higher. Both teams come in 11–0. Both teams in the top 3. Both teams are playing for not just a spot in the Big Ten Championship, but a spot in the College Football Playoff.¹ No offence to Iowa, which has already secured their spot in the Big Ten title game — or I should say, no offense to Iowa. The winner of Michigan/Ohio State is winning that game, just like every year.²
But unlike last year, the loser of the Michigan/Ohio State game is probably not making the playoff as well. That was a fluke thanks to a late USC loss last year, there would need to be too many flukes for that to happen again. So the loser is out this year. They’ll play a New Year’s Bowl game, but not one of any consequence. So yes, the stakes are high. Maybe more so than any year.
And that’s because of one man. The man. Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh is, of course, not coaching this game. Just as he has not coached five other games this year. It’s bullshit, but it is what it is. And you can’t help but wonder if this is the last game he will not coach because it may be one of the last games he’s affiliated with the University of Michigan.
Michigan, of course, would love to keep him. Even with all the controversies and suspensions, it’s well-known that Michigan will offer him a “lifetime” deal, and perhaps already has. But it’s also clear that the NCAA and now the Big Ten would prefer he leave. He’s good for ratings and records, but he’s just too much of a wild card. Better to let him do his thing in the NFL, where the game is less “pure”. Or something.
Anyway, the only way to ensure this isn’t Harbaugh’s last game at Michigan is to win the game. If that happens, he’ll coach in the Big Ten title game.³ And then the CFP. An NCAA suspension is also likely coming, but they won’t move nearly fast enough to derail this season. And if Georgia loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game — and it feels like the narrative is building towards that — Michigan would be the #1 overall seed. And would likely be favorites to make the title game for the first time.
If Harbaugh wins that game, I believe the call to go to the NFL is relatively simple. Mission: accomplished and all that. If he loses that game (or the first playoff game, once again), it’s more complicated. Harbaugh will still have unfinished business,⁴ but will be staring down both another suspension and an insanely hard schedule next year, with the Pac-12 teams joining the Big Ten. It’s all teed up for him to leave, for real this time.
But if Michigan loses this game, to Ohio State, I also believe he goes to the NFL (perhaps he coaches Michigan’s bowl game as a final goodbye). So again, it feels quite a bit like we’re on the verge of Harbaugh’s last game with Michigan, one way or another. And while he won’t be coaching this game, he has coached the team all week. This is his game and his team, sideline situation be damned.⁵
This feels like the best Michigan team I’ve seen in all my years watching. Last year’s team was great, but this year’s team is better. Yes, last week’s game was close — closer than it should have been — but the same thing happened last year with Illinois, and that was far closer. This year’s Michigan team is a dominant team. Their weakness is the bullshit that constantly surrounds them. Harbaugh obviously knows that, and must feel both somewhat responsible and badly for that.
He may have not stolen signs. And he may have not even known about any stealing of signs — the usefulness of which is highly suspect — but he has to know that he’s allowed himself to become the story. This happened in the early days of his involvement with Michigan as a coach. And now it’s above and beyond.⁶ It’s a distraction. And while it’s likely too much to ask if it can focus the team, the hope is that it just pisses them off, Tom Brady-style, to prove the haters wrong.
Anyway, that’s where my head is at this year ahead of The Game. I’m confident that Michigan is the better team, and I’ve been right in my assessment two years running now. But they’re also a team playing without their coach and surrounded by a shit show in a shit storm. At the same time, I’m confident that Ryan Day is a loser.⁷ A coach who woke up on third base and runs his mouth like he got a double because he doesn’t know the difference. The Big House should buffer the bullshit. Michigan will win by two scores. And Harbaugh will be in the NFL next year. Can anyone blame him? I certainly can’t. But I hope I’m wrong about that. #GoBlue
Published on November 24, 2023 📆
Written from London, England 🗺
Written on a 2022 11-inch M2 iPad Pro ⌨️
Enjoying a glass of red wine 🍷¹ The last of the impossible-to-make variety where only four teams enter, before that expands greatly next year.
² Though it would have been ever-so-slightly more dramatic from a narrative perspective if Cade McNamara weren’t lost for the year for Iowa. The last time we saw McNamara, he was losing out on his starting job to J.J. McCarthy at Michigan. But nothing but love for Cade who, of course, beat THE Ohio State University two years ago for Michigan. Get well soon.
³ And, of course, we all need to see Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, the man who so badly bungled Harbaugh’s suspension, hand the trophy to Jim Harbaugh. Hope Harbaugh has his “FU” look ready.
⁴ Of course he still has “unfinished business” in the NFL, which is part of what keeps calling him back — he made the Super Bowl but lost it. In very close fashion. To his brother, no less. I remember. I was there!
⁵ Interim coach (and OC) Sherrone Moore has obviously done a great job. And this will be a dress rehearsal for the permanent big job if Harbaugh leaves. But some of his play calling —in the 4th quarter against Penn State and basically the entire game against Maryland — has been suspect. Hopefully that’s sorted this week, just as it has been the past two years. But it’s worth flagging. This feels like a game J.J. needs to win and Blake needs to seal. But we’ll see…
⁶ All of this calls to mind the end of Pete Carroll at USC — the coach who was long Harbaugh’s nemesis, both when Jim was coaching Stanford, and later when he was coaching the 49ers and Carroll was the coach of the Seahawks. There’s no paying of players scandal now, only because that’s basically legal. Instead we have a far more silly controversy…
⁷ And if he loses this game, again, he’s likely done…
Update 11/25: And sure enough, Michigan won by two scores. Two field goals to be exact ;) It was a great game, an instant-classic. Michigan never trailed, but the game felt like it turned or could have turned on a few plays. It was very well-coached by Sherrone Moore, and he made a few big 4th down decisions and ran one hell of a timely trick play. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Day was probably too conservative, and made a couple strategic mistakes. But this was close enough that he should keep his job for at least another year.
Thoughts with Zak Zinter, Michigan’s best guard who went down and had to be carted off the field. The very next play, Blake Corum broke a TD run which seemed fueled by pure emotion. Zinter is a real loss here, especially if he can’t play in Michigan’s playoff run. But he came back to win this game and he did.
It’s another great team win. Almost exactly 20 years after the final game I went to as a student at Michigan, where we beat, yes, Ohio State and rushed the field. And Jim Harbaugh will be back for the Big Ten title game against Iowa next week. But as everyone knows, this is the real Big Ten title game. And now it’s 3 in a row against Ohio State. Wild. #GoBlue
